“The latest forecast for Tonga is not something you want to see – a forecast for already Category 4 Severe Cyclone Gita to reach Category 5 status (the highest on the scale) and make a direct hit over the top of Tonga and the capital Nuku’alofa on the main island Tongatapu tonight and early Tuesday.
Over 75,000 people are in the path of a storm already more powerful than anything New Zealand has ever seen with torrential rain and damaging winds forecast to be averaging close to 200km/h and gusting over 230km/h by tonight when it makes landfall there.
Maximum wave heights could be in excess of over 10 metres with storm surge at the centre of the cyclone lifting the sea up even further leading to coastal inundation and sending those waves even further inland. These incredibly dangerous seas could last 24 hours aroud the southern islands of Tonga. The most severe portion of wind and rain at the centre of the low will last around 12 to 18 hours over Tongatapu.
Powerful cyclones do tend to wobble at times from the forecast tracking. A last minute jog to the south could have significant benefits to Tonga, but a jog to the north could make things worse. These ‘wobbles’ are unpredictable, as we saw with Category 5 Cyclone Winston in 2016 which at the last hour wobbled off the forecast track and ended up making landfall in Fiji instead of remaining just out at sea.
By Tuesday afternoon conditions should be calmer in Tonga weatherwise, although dangerous seas and more normal rain could linger through Wednesday.
Computer modelling agrees that a direct hit to Tonga from the centre of Gita looks highly likely in the main southern island of Tongatapu overnight tonight.
With the island being so small, there is a chance Gita won’t technically make landfall (when the centre crosses land), but even a close brush will be equally as damaging.”
11:45 a.m. (local time Monday) – the wind just picked up in about 2 minutes from a light breeze and some blue sky, to 40 mph gusts, and it has begun torrentially raining (horizontally). It looks like it is beginning.
Phil and Jan's Adventure in Tonga 